The United Kingdom will make its formal exit from the European Union in March of 2019. No matter how one feels about the forthcoming change, it is a political reality, and it would be short-sighted to deny that there are both benefits and drawbacks for the British nation.
The beginning of this disentanglement comes at a fortuitous time. Western powers are caught between contrasting policy alternatives in key areas, including their dealings with the Middle East and their visions for the future of Iran and its regional power structure.
The negotiation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015 set the stage for a dramatic change in Iranian-European relations. Then, just over a year later, the election of Donald Trump set the United States on a very different course of foreign policy, thus necessitating that its European partners either follow suit or run a risk of being caught on the wrong side when bilateral relations start to deteriorate further.
If these trends remain consistent over the long term, there is little doubt that the EU countries will set policy on mass. They will either enable Iran’s return to global prominence, in line with the initial expectations of the JCPOA, or they will recognise the persistence of Iranian misbehaviour and decide to strengthen the sanctions and diplomatic pressures that are aimed at compelling Iran toward change.
